Survey Tabled with Upbeat Growth Outlook for India
India’s Economic Survey 2025–26, presented in Parliament on January 29, 2026, projects economic growth for FY27 in the range of 6.8–7.2 percent. This follows an estimated expansion of 7.4 percent in FY26, reflecting sustained domestic momentum despite global uncertainties. The survey also raises India’s medium-term growth potential to around 7 percent, attributing the optimism to steady infrastructure expansion, fiscal reforms, and resilient consumption patterns.
While acknowledging external challenges such as slowing global trade and geopolitical tensions, the report argues that domestic demand, public investment, and policy continuity are helping maintain growth stability.
What the Economic Survey Signals
The Economic Survey serves as the government’s annual assessment of economic performance and prospects ahead of the Union Budget. This year’s document paints a picture of cautious optimism, underlining how India’s economy has weathered global disruptions while strengthening internal growth drivers.
Manufacturing recovery, expanding infrastructure, and stable inflation conditions allowed monetary authorities to ease interest rates, stimulating investment and consumer spending. Logistics improvements—from new airports to inland waterways—have also begun reducing business costs and improving connectivity.
However, the survey also cautions that continued reforms at the state level and smoother implementation of taxation and labour policies are crucial to sustain the current pace.
India’s GDP Growth Projections from the Economic Survey 2024–25
To understand the current optimism, it is useful to compare projections made in the previous year’s survey.
The Economic Survey 2024–25 estimated real GDP growth for FY25 at approximately 6.4 percent, reflecting moderation after a strong FY24 expansion of over 8 percent. Growth was expected to settle closer to long-term averages amid global economic headwinds and slowing international demand.
For FY26, the earlier survey projected growth between 6.3 and 6.8 percent, noting that domestic demand, infrastructure spending, and manufacturing revival would support expansion. It also emphasized that continued deregulation, labour reforms, and logistics improvements would determine whether India could accelerate further.
The latest survey now suggests that growth momentum exceeded those cautious expectations, with FY26 growth estimated at 7.4 percent. This upgrade stems largely from stronger private investment, improved capital expenditure by governments, and the formalization of smaller enterprises.
Yet the report does not ignore emerging risks. A substantial section focuses on artificial intelligence and automation, warning that rapid expansion of energy-intensive data centres and highly leveraged technology investments could create financial vulnerabilities if demand projections fail. It also notes that AI-driven productivity gains may simultaneously displace workers in certain service-sector roles, making workforce reskilling essential.
Growth Strong, But Reform Momentum Must Continue
India’s economic outlook remains among the strongest globally, with domestic consumption and infrastructure investment sustaining expansion despite international volatility. However, the survey’s message is clear: maintaining growth above 7 percent will require continued structural reforms, investment in skills, and careful management of technological disruptions. India’s next phase of development will depend on balancing innovation with inclusion, ensuring that economic gains translate into broad-based employment and sustainable prosperity.
(With agency inputs)
